Trading Week - March 26 to 29
So I watched, and I waited. I had a look at the USDA planting intentions report; another small crop year. I checked out the ending stocks; decrease. Hmmm
A low for the week of 221.5 was reached and with the release of Thursday's reports oats was reaching up and well off the lows as soybeans and corn soared!
I entered long at 126.5 and was stopped out. My thoughts were that oats was either going to follow up and only up, or not. Not!
For this week, keep watching but take note of the managed money position. Two weeks ago they were long 738 and short 0...this week they are long only 132 and short 778. Are they done liquidating longs? Is short covering going to begin this week? My guess..definitely maybe.
Continue to watch. Enter if 221.5 was in fact a bottom, by probing the long side with a tight stop...possibly 224 for the stop.
I have a message for you corn...you are too high. You loved the bullish news about planting intentions and screamed higher, but you forgot that ending stocks are higher than anticipated. I will not trade you until you get knocked down a bit in the next few sessions.
Careful...cold spring...huge hog numbers...heavy hogs...significant trade headwinds...and ample supplies of beef to compete for the BBQ. There was a possible key reversal in the June contract this week, but I think that it is just consolidating for a further move lower and here's why. The April contract is 57 and ends in few days, but the June contract is 76. Will the market trade up to the June contract? I suspect that if BBQ's aren't fired up fully by the time April expires, then poor old June will get knocked down a bit before it finds its legs. When it does run, will it be up to the mid 80's? Probably not much past 80.
I'm going to go long in June hogs but not until the April and June contracts discover a realistic price level.
Happy Hedging to all of you small farmers!