Trading Week - March 26 to 30
From last week:
ZO May18 enter long @ 238
I did not take this trade. Oats was trending lower and it just kept going.
ZC May18 enter long @ 372
ZC Dec18 enter long @ 395
I didn't take these trades. Corn was trending lower and it also just kept going.
HE April18 enter long 2 @ 65.450
I really wish I hadn't taken these trades! Stopped out for a loss.
HE June18 enter long @ 77.85
More pain here...see above.
What really...what does oats know? Oats is heading lower. It doesn't like the USDA planting intentions report coming out this week and it definitely doesn't like trade war talk.
Managed money removed 500 long positions and added 300 short positions. So the funds want oats to tumble don't they?
WATCH THE TREND. Enter long with tight stops when a bottom is confirmed after the planting intentions report. The bottom in ZO May18 could be around 216 or much lower. I suspect it will turn around if the corn planting intentions are bullish.
Corn is experiencing a correction, so I think I'll just watch it drop to 366 in the old crop and 390 in the new crop. With China considering placing tariffs on ethanol, it may be a good idea to keep tight stops if I enter after the USDA planting intentions report.
WATCH THE TREND. if corn planting intentions are less than 89 M acres then consider going long in nearby or deferred...however keep tight stops.
OUCH! THAT HURT!
Note to self...never go long while a trade war is being organized. That being said, the market has overreacted and is oversold because China really doesn't import a huge quantity of pork from USA, but Mexico and Canada do.
Lean Hogs real problem is (1) too many hogs (2) too heavy hogs (3) too much cold weather and not enough BBQ fun
WATCH ONLY. However, when the seasonal decrease in hog numbers occurs; and the hog weights are lower; and when the BBQ demand appears with warm spring weather....then go long HE Jun18 after a bounce from a definite bottom.
WATCH ONLY. When demand picks up with the BBQ season, I wouldn't be surprised if nearby cattle catch a bid but I also would expect choppy sideways trade due to the sheer quantity of beef available.
Wish me luck!